Playoff Births Clinched!!!

Okay, so the title may be a tad misleading as all but one birth in all three divisions have been clinched.  However, don’t let this fool you, there is still plenty to be decided.  We know who is in, but “who plays who” and “where” will be determined by this week’s finish! 

Highlights 

DIVISION I

·        The expected…Bainbridge is 12-0 and has clinched the #1 seed.  The Spartans will host a playoff game regardless of what happens this week.

·        The unexpected…We told you Mercer Island needed to finish 3-2 to clinch.  So, the Islanders decided to make things easy by earning the 3 wins this week.  The biggest was an 8-7 nail biter over Maple Valley.  Now, Mercer has the inside track on finishing #2 and hosting a semi-final match up.

·        Lakeside’s loss to Bellevue midweek all but eliminated the Lions and Maple Valley’s win on Saturday sealed their fate.  Same story for Port Angeles.  They were unable to pull off the upset with Mercer Island, so the Riders had to win out after that.  Unfortunately they ran into a Maple Valley squad looking for revenge and lost by ten.  The result, the Riders are out.

·        This week will see a mad scramble for positioning.  Bellevue, Mercer Island and Maple Valley will all try and avoid the #4 spot and thus avoid Bainbridge in the semi-finals.  Although Lakeside and Port Angeles are out, both teams will factor in the playoff picture. Lakeside still has games with Maple Valley and Mercer Island,

Port Angeles still has Bellevue.

·        DI PLAYOFF PICTURE: 

Bainbridge- Clinched #1

            Mercer Island- back on track, clinched playoffs, can finish anywhere from #2-4

Bellevue- easiest remaining schedule, most likely #3, can finish anywhere from #2-4

                        Maple Valley- most likely #4, but still shot at #2 or #3

SCENARIOS:           

Mercer wins two, they are #2.  If Islanders split, Bellevue splits or wins two and Maple Valley splits or loses

both, then Mercer #2, Bellevue #3, Maple Valley #4.  If Mercer splits and Maple Valley can win both,

Islanders could drop to #4.  As you can tell, all sorts of craziness is still possible.  In fact, for you statisticians, there are still 27 scenarios possible since each team has 2 games remaining.  Within the 27 scenarios are 5 possible orders of finish.  Here you go:

Order of Finish                                     # of scenarios that make it possible

Mercer Island-Bellevue-Maple Valley                                       13

Maple Valley-Mercer Island-Bellevue                                       5

Mercer Island-Maple Valley-Bellevue                                       4

Bellevue-Maple Valley-Mercer Island                                        4

Bellevue-Mercer Island-Maple Valley                                        1

Mercer Island, Bellevue and Maple Valley are all tied in head-to-head to match ups, each having a 1-1 record against the others.  Therefore, should a tie occur, head-to-head goal differential (GD) will be the determining factor.  Mercer Island holds a +2 GD over Bellevue, Bellevue holds a +6 GD over Maple Valley and Maple Valley holds a +5 GD over Mercer Island.  In a three-way tie, head-to-head goal differential between all three teams within the four games played against each other would be used.  In this case, Bellevue leads at +4, followed by Maple Valley -1 and then Mercer Island -3.  The likelihood of a three-way tie is slim, but in 2002 anything is possible!

DIVISION II

·        Bainbridge is 10-0 and has clinched #1 seed.  Echo?

·        Eastside came up with a huge victory over Franklin.  As the Franklin coach put it, “They played like their season was on the line.”  In a sense it was.  Eastside needed a win in their final three games to clinch.  Their final two games are against #1 Bainbridge and current #2 Panthers, so the Ravens took care of business against Franklin to avoid any doubt. 

·        Despite a turnaround season, the Roughriders were eliminated from the playoffs this week.  Despite a tough loss to Bainbridge, the playoffs were still in reach until Eastside beat Franklin.  The Roughriders can still finish a very respectable 6-6 with wins in their final two.  However, even if Franklin and/or Eastside falter, the Roughriders lose out in any tie-break situation.

·        DII PLAYOFF PICTURE:

                        Bainbridge- clinched #1 seed

Panthers- clinch #2 with a win in either of final two games

                        Eastside-now hold tie-break with Franklin, sitting pretty for #3, still shot at #2

                        Franklin-have sort of backed their way into the playoffs, outside shot at #2 still but not as dominant as early on

                  SCENARIOS:

                        Not quite as many scenarios as Division I since teams 2-4 still have games against each other.  Of the 16

different possibilities, 9 would result in a Panthers-Eastside-Franklin finish.  Panthers just need to win one more to clear the confusing possibilities.  However, should they lose both it becomes interesting. 

                       #1 Scenario:  Franklin def. Panthers, Eastside def. Bainbridge, Bainbridge def. Franklin, Eastside beats Panthers by 4 or more

    Result: Eastside wins tie-break with Panthers on GD               Finish: Eastside, Panthers, Franklin

#2 Scenario:  Franklin def. Panthers by 2 or more, Bainbridge def. Eastside, Franklin def. Bainbridge, Eastside def. Panthers

     Result: Franklin wins tie-break with Panthers on GD                Finish: Franklin, Panthers, Eastside

#3 Scenario:  Franklin def. Panthers, Bainbridge def. Eastside, Bainbridge def. Franklin, Eastside def. Panthers

     Result: Panthers #2, Eastside wins tie break with Franklin      Finish: Panthers, Eastside, Franklin

#4 Scenario:  Franklin def. Panthers, Eastside def. Bainbridge, Franklin def. Bainbridge, Eastside def. Panthers

     Result:  Three-way-tie                                                                    Finish: dependant on scores of games and thus GD

Bainbridge will have a big say in things and the Panthers control their own destiny, but in the year of

parity we thought we would throw it out there.  Just for fun…we could even have a coin flip decide 

seedings.  For example: Scenario #1 works out but Eastside only wins by 3, then GD is tied and coin flip

decides it.  Of course, none of this may happen, but the way the year has gone wouldn’t it just be fitting?

DIVISION III

·        Snohomish and Garfield are still alive for the only playoff spot yet to be clinched.  Garfield sits at 3-4 with Bainbridge, Issaquah and Curtis left.  Snohomish is 4-4 with Issaquah and Mt. Ranier to finish.  Again, all sorts of scenarios, but with Issaquah and Curtis left, Garfield will have to have a big finish to pull it off.

·        Port Angeles still has an outside shot of winning the East and it starts with beating Curtis in their next game.  Even if they get by the Vikings, Curtis would have to lose their final two.  Possible- yes, realistic-no.

·         D3 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

Barring the year’s biggest upsets the playoffs seem set.  Most likely it will be as follows:

            #2 East (Snohomish) @ #1 West (Curtis)

            #2 West (Port Angeles) @ #1 East (Issaquah)

Top Performers

Don’t let the drop in numbers fool you.  Adam Smith is Mr. Top Performer.  A truly unselfish player, Adam’s ability to get his teammates involved has helped develop a relatively young Bainbridge squad into an offensive machine.  Smith hasn’t scored less than 2 points in a game all year.  His 28 assists lead everyone in any division.  Adam averages 2.55 assists per game.  No one else in any division is above 2.0.  This week he was at it again notching 4g, 6a in two more Spartan victories.  His season totals of 24g, 28a rank him 3^rd in points and 4^th in points per game in one less game than most of the top scorers.  Adam missed a game while on recruiting trips.  His numbers are even more impressive when you consider the game he missed was against Overlake.  But, Adam isn’t worried about the numbers.  He has his mind on returning the cup to Bainbridge!

Games to Watch

Panthers look to clinch #2 seed, Franklin needs a win to get back on track

                        Bellevue needs it if they have any hopes of finishing #2, Riders looking to finish .500

                       If Islanders lose to Bainbridge on Monday they’ll need this one to avoid a possible drop to #3 or #4.

·        5/8       Maple Valley A @ Bainbridge A

Outside shot at #2 seed if Vandals can pull off the upset.  Spartans looking to finish undefeated.

Depending on Tuesday’s games this could be a battle for #2.

Again, depending on other results, could be a big one for the Vandals.  Lions would love to play spoiler.

Up to Date Stats:

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